TL;DR
July 2026’s PlayStation Plus Essential lineup is expected to include at least one AAA PS5 title and two PS4 cross-gen games, with a rumored leak pointing to a major Sony first-party release. The official reveal is scheduled for Wednesday, July 1, 2026, making this the final chance for subscribers to claim June’s free games.
What Happened
Forbes has published its monthly predictions for the PlayStation Plus Essential free games lineup for July 2026, based on industry patterns, retailer leaks, and insider rumors. With the official announcement due in just three days, speculation is intensifying around which titles Sony will offer to its 47 million active PS Plus subscribers.
Key Facts
- The official PlayStation Plus Essential lineup for July 2026 will be announced on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, at approximately 11:00 AM ET via the PlayStation Blog.
- June 2026’s free games — including LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, Sifu, and Chicory: A Colorful Tale — expire on July 5, 2026.
- Forbes’ prediction model, which tracks 12 consecutive months of release patterns, suggests a 70% probability of at least one PS5-only title in the July lineup.
- A rumored leak from Dealabs user billbil-kun, who has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 PS Plus lineups, points to Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut as a potential July 2026 headliner.
- PlayStation Plus Essential costs $9.99/month or $79.99/year and grants three games per month with no tier upgrade required.
- Sony Interactive Entertainment reported PS Plus subscriber growth of 8% year-over-year in its FY2025 Q4 earnings (May 2026), driven by the Extra and Premium tiers.
- The July 2026 lineup will be the first to follow the launch of PlayStation Plus Game Catalog Update: June 2026, which added 24 titles on June 18.
Breaking It Down
The most reliable signal in this month’s prediction cycle comes from billbil-kun, the French leaker whose track record of 90% accuracy over the past ten months makes their tip the strongest lead available. Their claim that Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut — a title that has sold over 13 million copies worldwide and remains a PS5 showcase — will headline July 2026 fits Sony’s established pattern of rotating first-party exclusives into the Essential tier roughly 24 to 30 months after their premium debut.
Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut was released on PS5 in August 2021 and on PC in May 2024, meaning a July 2026 PS Plus inclusion would land 59 months after its original PS4 launch — exactly the kind of window Sony uses to re-engage lapsed subscribers before major franchise announcements.
Forbes’ own analysis, based on historical release cadence, identifies two structural factors supporting this prediction. First, Sony has not offered a first-party open-world title on PS Plus Essential since Horizon Forbidden West joined the lineup in March 2025. Second, Sucker Punch Productions is widely expected to announce a Ghost of Tsushima sequel at a potential September 2026 PlayStation Showcase, making a July 2026 PS Plus drop a logical pre-sequel marketing play. The timing mirrors Sony’s strategy with God of War (2018), which hit PS Plus in June 2022 — six months before Ragnarök’s November 2022 launch.
The other two slots in the July lineup are harder to predict but follow known constraints. PS4 cross-gen titles still dominate the non-headliner positions, with indie darlings and older AAA games filling the remaining two spots. Forbes’ data shows that 67% of PS Plus Essential lineups in 2025 included at least one title that was originally released in 2021 or earlier. Likely candidates for July 2026 include Kena: Bridge of Spirits (2021), Returnal (2021), or Death Stranding Director’s Cut (2022), all of which have seen retail price drops and have no ongoing premium DLC that would cannibalize sales.
What Comes Next
The coming days will settle the speculation with concrete facts. Here are the specific events and decisions to watch:
- Wednesday, July 1, 2026, 11:00 AM ET: Sony publishes the official PlayStation Blog post revealing the full July 2026 Essential lineup. The post will include trailer links, game descriptions, and the exact expiration date for June’s titles (expected July 5).
- Friday, July 3, 2026: If the Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut leak is accurate, expect a price reduction on its PS5 upgrade and Iki Island expansion as standalone purchases, following Sony’s pattern of discounting DLC during free game months.
- Sunday, July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: June 2026’s games — LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, Sifu, and Chicory: A Colorful Tale — become permanently unavailable to claim. Subscribers who have not added them to their library lose access forever.
- Late July 2026: The PlayStation Plus Extra and Premium Game Catalog for August 2026 will be announced, typically in the third week of July. This catalog update often includes titles that were rumored for Essential but did not make the cut, providing a secondary validation of prediction accuracy.
The Bigger Picture
This story sits at the intersection of subscription service maturation and first-party IP lifecycle management. PlayStation Plus has evolved from a simple online multiplayer pass into a three-tier subscription business generating an estimated $4.5 billion annually for Sony. The Essential tier, despite offering the fewest games, remains the largest subscriber base because it is the cheapest entry point and the only tier required for online play. Sony’s decision to place a major first-party title like Ghost of Tsushima into this tier — rather than reserving it for Extra or Premium — signals a strategic shift: the company is now willing to sacrifice short-term unit sales on older titles to drive subscriber retention and reduce churn ahead of new hardware or sequel announcements.
The second trend is leak culture and its impact on consumer behavior. The 90% accuracy rate of leakers like billbil-kun has created a predictable pre-announcement cycle that influences both social media discourse and actual subscription decisions. Sony has never officially acknowledged these leaks, but the company’s consistent Wednesday announcement schedule and predictable game-selection patterns suggest a tacit acceptance of the ecosystem. For subscribers, the practical implication is clear: waiting until the last week of the month to claim free games is now standard practice, as the leak cycle provides actionable intelligence on whether to maintain or cancel a subscription.
Key Takeaways
- [July 1 Announcement]: Sony will reveal the PlayStation Plus Essential July 2026 lineup on Wednesday, July 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, with a rumored headliner of Ghost of Tsushima Director’s Cut.
- [Leak Accuracy]: Leaker billbil-kun has a 90% accuracy rate over the past 10 months, making their Ghost of Tsushima tip the strongest predictive signal currently available.
- [June Expiration]: Subscribers have until July 5, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET to claim June’s games: LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, Sifu, and Chicory: A Colorful Tale.
- [Strategic Timing]: A Ghost of Tsushima PS Plus drop would align with Sony’s historical pattern of offering first-party titles six months before a sequel announcement, supporting rumors of a September 2026 PlayStation Showcase.
